PHD theses : Economic

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://repository.neelain.edu.sd/handle/123456789/12100

Browse

Now showing 1 - 14 of 14

THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON TRADE BALANCE IN SUDAN
(ALNEELAIN UNIVERSITY, 2001-12) AHMED ABD ALLAH IBRAHIM AHMED
3 Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulﬁlment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON TRADE BALANCE IN SUDAN By AHMED ABD ALLAH IBRAHIM AHMED December 2001 Chairman: Professor Mohammad Bin Yusoff, Ph.D. Faculty: Economics and Management One of the primary economic objectives of most developing countries is to improve their trade balance. Economists have suggested that trade deﬁcit can be reduced through currency devaluation. This study attempts to determine the eﬁects of devaluation on the trade balance of Sudan and the pass-through effects on Sudan's major export prices by employing Vector Error Conection Model (VECM). The results from the study suggest that the elasticities of import demand with respect to the price ratio of imports relative to domestic price and domestic income are high, while that of the real effective exchange rate is low. The elasticities of export demand with respect to price ratio of exports relative to foreign price, foreign income and real effective exchange rate are high. ln particular, the export demand for cotton and gum arabic are elastic with respect to the exchange rate and the foreign price. Abstrak lesis yang lelah dikcmukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai mcmenuhi keperluan unluk ijalah Doktor Falsafah KESAN PERVBAHAN KADAR PERTUKARAN KEATAS IMBANGAN DAGANGAN DI SUDAN Oleh AHMED ABD ALLAII IBRAIIIM AHMED December 2001 Pcngerusi: Profesor Mohammed Bin Yusoff, Ph.D. Fakulti: Ekonomi dan Pengurusan Salah satu ohjehif penting bagi negara membangun ialah mempcrbaiki imbangan pembayaran. Ahli ekonomi mencadangkan pcnunman nilai matawang sebagai satu cara untuk maksud lcrscbut. Kajian ini cuba melihat kesan devaluasi kc atas imbangan pembayaran di Sudan, dan juga kcsan “pass through" dengan menggunakan modcl VECM. Keputusan ujian mcnunjukkan keanjalan yang tinggi di antara pennintaan import dan nisbah harga impon 1 harga tempalan. Keanjalannya dengan kadar peltukaran efektif adalah rendah. Keanjalan pennimaan ekspon terhadap nisbah harga export : harga aoing, : pendapalan dunia dan kadar pertukaran efektif adalah tinggi. Khususnya, pennintaan eksport bagi gum arabik dan kapas adalah anjal terhadap kadar pcmlkaran dan harga dunia. Bagi imbangan dagangan, kita mendapati ianya adalah anjal terhadap pembahan dalam pcnnimaan domcstik, pendapatan dunia dan kadar pertukaran efektif. Hasil lambah keanjalan bagi eksport dan import adalah lebih besar dari satu yang menunjukkan syarat Marshall-Lcmer dapat dipcnuhi. Ini bermakna, devaluasi boleh mcmbaiki imbangan perdagangan. kajian juga menunjukkan terdapatnya perhubungan 1 6 jangka panjang yang signiﬁkan di antara kadar penukaran efektif dan imbangan ‘ ' perdagangan yang bennakna dcvaluasi boleh memperbaiki imbangan perdagangan dalam » jangka panjang. > - ~ Keputusan bagi “pass through" bagi harga import kapas adalah sempuma, yang menyarankan Sudan adalah "price taker“ di pasaran antarabangsa. Dcngan itu devaluasi ‘ akan meningkalkan lagi pennintaan bagi eksport kapas dalam tcmpoh jangka panjang I "Pass through" bagi gum arabik adalah tidak scmpuma yang merunjukkan Sudan adalah "price maker" dalam pasaran amarabangsa dan dcvaluasi tidak mungkin membawa apa- apa kesan yang positif.
The Implications of Sudan's Accession to the WTO on the Agricultural Sector
(Al Neelain University, 2002) Azhari Ibrahim Basbar
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was signed in Geneva in 1947 and entered into force in the beginning of 1948 as a framework to regulate international trade among its signatories. The arrangements entered into were directed to the substantial reduction of tariff barriers and other barriers to trade, and to the elimination of discrimination in international trade (WTO 1995, p486; FAO l998,p4). The World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were established in Bretton Woods in 1944 in order to deal with matters of intemational ﬁnance and development were associated initiatives (FAO 1998, p4).
MACROECONOMIC REFORMS & STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SUDAN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (1960-1998)
(Al Neelain University, 2003-10) Awad Mohamed Khair Hussein
In the early 19905, Sudan has embarked on ., new ambitious macroeconomic reforms and structural adjustments aiming at stabilizing the macroeconomic enviromnent and realizing sustainable economic growth. Moreover, the country was committed to a vigorous economic and market liberalization which utilized devaluation and privatization as key tools. This thesis examines the likely effects of reforms and structural adjustments that have been implemented, particularly the effects of exchange rate devaluation and money supply being used as policy instruments on supply and demand sides as well as on wage structure and labor supply. In order to evaluate the effects of policy changes, a competent macroeconometrie model is constructed for the Sudan. A set of nineteen behavioral equations describes demand and supply in the model including the monetary sector and labor market. Three identities of real national income, trade balance and govemment revenues are introduced. The model is basically built around the Keynesian national income identity and is estimated by using both two stages least squares (2SLS) and three stages least squares (3SLS) techniques. Some key tests are conducted to ensure the plausibility of the behavioral equations. The results of these tests showed sound statistical modeling. The simulation exercises are mainly based on the exchange rate and money supply as policy instrument. Two scenarios are conducted; the ﬁrst experiments with the ﬁxed exchange rate calculated as the average of the exchange rate ruling during the period of simulations. The second scenario utilizes a normal growth of the exchange rate, as it would have grown without govemment intervention. The actual performance of the exchange rate is taken as the outcome of accelerating devaluation actually experienced by the economy. Money supply, as an instrument was used in two different experiments, the ﬁrst experiment simulates the effect of reducing money supply by 10%, while the second experiment simulates the effect of increasing money supply by 10%. On the demand side, the results of simulating exchange rate as a policy instrument reveal that the ﬁrst scenario has a negative effect of -9.30% on average on the overall GDP. In contrast, the second scenario produces a positive effect of 1 l.28%on GDP along the period of simulations. On the supply side the results reveal that a minor positive affect on the overall GDP when applying the ﬁrst scenario. The newly simulated GDP due to this scenario is greater by 0.51% on average compared to the Actual; whereas the second scenario shows the most favorable effect on GDP, estimated on average at 1.84% along the simulation period. The other simulation exercise uses money supply as a policy instrument. The simulations produce the following results: The ﬁrst experiment reduces the inﬂation rate by —53.77%, while second experiment increases inﬂation rate by an average of 29.70% along the tested period. The ﬁrst experiment increases wages on average by 4.90%, while second experiment causes wages to decrease by an average of -7.84 %. The results also reveal that ﬁrst experiment increases labor supply by an average of 11.57%. While the second experiment, reduces labor supply by an average of -2.90%. The results also show that under the ﬁrst experiment nominal exchange rate is reduced by -30.42%. The second experiment, however, increases nominal exchange rate by 16.04 %.
POVERTY AND INEQUALITY IN SUDAN: AN ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD DATA (2000)
(ALNEELAIN UNIVERSITY, 2004-08) Ali Elgeilani Fad-Allah Elhaj
Abstract This study attempted to analyze the trends of poverty and income inequality in Sudan across socio-economic groups and overtime, with special emphasis on a set of interrelated factors that contribute to poverty and affect human capabilities The study examined the following main contentions: Firstly, during the period 1990 '- 2000 poverty and income inequality have increased substantially This period also witnessed the worsening position of the poor. Secondly, a reduction in poverty as well as in its depth and severity is signiﬁcantly associated with access to social services. Thirdly, economic growth is important in poverty reduction. It is found that, for urban and rural areas the absolute poverty line was SD 928998 and SD. 655356 per household per year with a household size of 7 07 and 7.63 persons respectively. It is also found that, for urban and rural areas, the absolute poverty line was SD. 742410 and SD. 535107 per household per year with per-adult household size of 5.65 and 6 23 persons respectively. The subjective poverty lines based on perceived minmum income for total sample, urban, and rural areas were SD. 6454149, SD. 761781.5 and SD. 5862507 per household per year respectively On the other hand a subjective poverty line based on the perceived adequacy of consumption was estimated at SD. 5902794 per household per year, where average household size was 7 36 persons Therefore, the subjective and objective poverty lines were approximately the same. During the period 1990-2000 all poverty measures have increased at high rates. In 1990, 77.5 percent ofthe households were poor, whereas in 2000 it is found that 88 percent of the total households surveyed fall on or below the poverty line The depth and severity rates of poverty were 60% and 48.4% respectively The incidence, depth and severity indices of poverty varied substantially across regions and across rural and urban areas. Across all regions all rural poverty measures were higher than the urban poverty measures. The policy implication of this result is that poverty alleviation strategy should favor the rural areas and anti-poverty policies should be directed towards the regions with the highest values of all poverty measures. Also it is found that a reduction in poverty as well as in its depth and severity is signiﬁcantly associated with access to social services The growth elasticity ol‘ poverty is found to be statistically signiﬁcant but small. Thus, although growth is important in poverty reduction, its role in this respect should not be overestimated One possible explanation to this ﬁnding is that poverty in Sudan has reached alarmed proportion and that alleviation of which requires inﬂuential pro-poor policies It is found that income inequality has become more severe, where the Gini Coefﬁcient increased from 61% in 1990 to 73 2% in 2000. Also the data revealed that the income inequality has grown more rapidly in urban than in rural areas.
THE IMPACTS OF RAILWAYS TRANSPORTATION ON THE SUDANESE ECONOMIC GROWTH
(Al-Neelain University, 2004-10) Abd El Rahman Mohamed Fahmi
Transport plays an important role in the life of a community. lt utilizes a considerable proportion of the available resources. The ntunber of people engaged in the handling and movement of goods is greater than in any other industry. Transport cost is a part of the cost of production and distribution of goods. Thus improvement of the transport system will reduce the ﬁnal price and increase disposable income. Thus transport development went in the same pace as the progress achieved in man’s life. The development of civilizations and the increase in economic activities and trade led to improvements road and water transport. The growth of tlle industrial revolution and the increase in industrial production initiated the development of the railways as a new means of transport. The development of railways resulted in a great increase in passenger and freight traltic as they offered higher speed and lower costs . The 20th century witnessed the rapid growth of motor vehicles and air transport. Motor vehicles manufacture was more rapid in USA where they were produced in large quantities and standard design. The initial flight efforts were made by experimental balloons. The ﬁrst successful flight \\-as tirade ln December 1903 in the USA . Each mode of transport operates through some facilities and equipment with certain technical characteristics, which bring some advantages and disadvantages to its operations and determine its costs and price structure. The railways have very high carrying capacity. A single locomotive can haul a train of 30 wagons each canying 25 tons of cargo i.e. a net load of 750 tons. This is equivalent to the load of 50 trucks each carrying l5 tons of cargo. l\/loreover the railway route capacity can be increased to allow the operation of more trains. Due to the existence of a large proportion of ﬁxed costs, the railways average costs tend to decline with the increase in trafﬁc and length of haul. Thus the railways are suitable for the Sudan where production is formed mainly of agricultural crops which are harvested and transported during a limited seasonal period and where the distance from the production regions to the market centers and the sea port is very long . The truck is a complete transport unit with its cargo space and the motive power and the attendant costs of fuel, maintenance and drivers wages. Due to its limited capacity and as the operating costs increase with the haulage distance, the truck is suitable for the movement of small lot shipments and for short and medium’ distances. River transport is slow, but has very low costs. Thus it is suitable for the movement or bulk cheap cargo such as building materials and minerals .. Air transport has the advantage of high speed and is suitable l’or the movement of long distance passenger and light high value cargo trafﬁc. Pipe litres have low ﬂexibility. They are suitable for the movement oflimited types oftrafﬁc mainly oil, gas or water . The main purpose of the initial railways construction in the Sudan was military, for the transport of the invading army -and supply materials to the inside of the country. The lirle was extended from Halfa to Nyala in the west and to Wau in the south. lt was extended to Swakin and Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. In order to utilize the agricultural land of Al Gazira region the line was extended from Khartoum to Medani and then to Sennar and Al Obeid. 'l'he line extension from l-laiya to Kssala, Al Gadaret and then to Sennar provided an alternative loop line to the sea port. It facilitated the utilization of the agricultural land at Al Gash delta and Gedarif region. The railways line was extended to Rosseires and to'k.arima . The railways assisted in the construction of Sennar, Rossaire and Khashm Al Girba dams. The extension of the line to the Red Sea coast opened new markets for the Sudanese exports. The railways were essential for the success of Al Gazira Scheme, as a result of which the Sudan became a major exporter of cotton . The railways were operating efficiently during the l960’s. However by the beginning of the l97O’s their performance started to decline due to the lack of spare parts required for maintenance and increased road competition resulting from the construction of trunk roads, mainly Port Sudan/l\'hr'toum road. By the mid-l980’s the railways were operating at 20% of their capacity As a result of the low railway perfonnance, road transport ﬁ'eight traffic increased considerably . The position of other available modes was as follows. The performance of the River Transport Corporation declined considerably and specially during the past ﬁve years due to the war conditions and the lack of spare parts required for maintenance ..The length of paved roads excluding roads at the cities is 3,223 kilometers. This includes Khartoum/Port Sudan road which is l,2O0 kilometers long .. The port trafﬁc increased considerably ir1 line with the increase in the country’s exports and imports. Several improvements were implemented including the construction of general cargo and container births and the introduction of new handling equipment. Osman Digna port is engaged in handling of passengers and small quantities of cargo trafﬁc. Bashayer port handles petroleum trafﬁc .. The (‘ivil Aviation Corporation is responsible of the construction of airports. The construction of the new Khartoum airport is under study. Sudan Airways and other private companies are providing air freight services . Sudan has vast agricultural. mineral and other natural resources which are not geatly utilized due to the lack ol’ capital. The signing of the peace agreement and the atmosphere of reconciliation and political stability will provide attractive enviromnent for foreign investment in the Sudan. Additionally the increase in oil exports will provide sufficient capital for the exploitation of the available resources. This will result in great increase in production and in the demand for transport services. Thus in order to assess tlreaioltrrne of future traﬁic, a hypothetical l5 years plan was made for the growth in agricultural, industrial and minerals production. These three sectors contribute about 70% of the GDP. Estimates of future production were made on the basis of the average growth rate in the production of the main connnodities during the past ﬁve years . The quantity of production \\-hich will be available for transport had been allocated among the various modes on the basis of the trafﬁc volume and type of required services. Thus the railways will handle such products as dura and wheat. They will also transport development materials and equipment from the port. Road transport will handle small shipments for short and meditun distances and cargo requiring special equipment e.g. perishable items. They will compete with the railways for the transport of valuable items and express import and export shipments. Road transport will play the main role in handling inter-city passenger traffic. Air transport will handle long distance passenger and small lot express cargo shipments. River transport will handle development materials to the war affected areas and the transport of timber and other products of the region. The northen reach will agricultural crops and petroleum products . To Assess the pressure which will be exerted on the existing transport system in the very short run, the total production for the year 2008 amounting to 10,97 million tons is allocated among the various modes of transport as follows: The railways 5,96 million tons about 54%. road transport 3,71 million tons about 34%, air transport 3,71 million tons about 9% and river transport 0,27 million tons about 3%. These estimates greatly exceed the existing canying capacities of the available transport modes, specially the railways and the river transport services . The private sector presently handles nearly most of the road cargo trafﬁc. Thus existing companies will respond to the increase in trafﬁc by expanding their carrying capacities. New companies will enter the road transpoit business, specially as the initial investment is not substantial. Thus sul'ticient canying capacity will be available for handling the expected increase in trallic . Sudan airways and other prirzrte companies are presently handling domestic and international air freight trafﬁc. Thus existing companies will increase their canying capacities in response to the increase in trafﬁc. The realized proﬁts will attract new investment in the air transport business either for expansion of the existing companies or the formation of new airfreight concerns. Thus the resulting increase in canying capacity will be sufficient to handle the quatttity allocated for haulage by air transport . The provision of the necessary Funds will enable the Steamer Services Corporation to purchase the spare parts required for maintenance of the existing ﬂeet and the procurement of additional units. This will greatly expand the available canying capacities. Thus the improved per"t'ormance of the Corporation taking in consideration the end of the war in the south and the participation of ‘the private sector in the operation of steamer services will provide sufficient capacity to handle the expected trafﬁc . However the situation is ditTerent for the railways operations which do not allow wide participation of the private sector. This is mainly due to the large initial capital required for the provision of specialized equipment and facilities. Additionally in most cases the available trafﬁc tnay not allow more than one company to cover the total costs. Accordingly entry and exit from the railway brtsiness is not as easy as it is the case with other industries. Thus the r'ailwa_\~' business tends towards monopoly rather than competition in the provision of service. For example lndia Railways is the largest railway under a single administration. Although some private companies are presently operating passenger and cargo trains on the existing lines, yet their operations are limited and will not be sufﬁcient to handle the expected trafﬁc. However the private sector can invest in the operation of new or existing railway lines or the construction of terminals on the basis of concession agreements or “Build-Upcrate-Transfer (BOT)” arrangement. Accordingly on the short run sufﬁcient funds should be provided to purchase the spare parts required for maintenance. Additional locomotives and wagons should be introduced to increase the carrying capacity. On the basis of these improvements it is forecast that the railways will handle 7,25 million tons. However this volume is less than the quantity allocated for railways transport in the hypothetical plan amounting to l0,40 in 2018. The difference represents the deﬁciency gap ill the provision of the transport services resulting from the expected increase in production. The elimination of this gap can be achieved on the long run by expansion of the railways route capacity which includes doubling the line Port Sudan/ Haiya, widening of the railways gauge, introduction of concrete sleepers. Such improvements will increase the number of trains, their average load and speed and create sufficient capacity to meet the future trafﬁc . The expected economic growth will result in great increase in the volume of exports and imports. This should be met by similar expansion of the sea ports storage and handling facilities and construction ofadditional berths .
THE INIPACT OF DATA AND INFOR MATION ON AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN SUDAN
(Neelain University, 2005) Adil Osman Idris
ABSTRACT This study aims at investigating on the information system in the agricultural sector of the Sudan in general and its impact on planning agricultural development in particular. Sudan practiced development planning since early sixties of the previous century starting from the Ten Year Development Plan (l96l-62/1970-71) up to the Comprehensive National Strategy (Il992-2002), the agricultural sector as a leading sector had the lion’s share in all the ‘development plans. On comparing achievements and objectives of the development plans executed in Sudan, we found that there is a gab in the sense that these plans did not achieve fully their objectives. On investigating on the causes of this failure a number of factors arose, such as inadequate finance, political instability, poor data quality and data in availability. For the purpose of this study the Extended Five-Year Plan (1970- 71/I976-77) was taken as a case study to be analyzed from the side of plan building, execution and achievements. The research methodology used is analytical and empirical in nature. A questionnaire was designed to detect the current information system performance to identify the points of weakness and strength. The Study is composed of six chapters, chapter one is covering the research plan. The following four chapters tackled the theme of the study, while the last chapter presented the testing of the hypotheses, the research ﬁndings and some recommendations. The main recommendation set by the study is the proposal for the establishment of agricultural database in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MOAF) to be the only authentic source of agricultural information.
Child Well-Being In An Urban Evelopment Context (A Case of Khartoum State, Sudan)
(Al Neelain University, 2005) YASIR AWAD ELKARIM ELMUBARAK
The Study is an assessment of the status of Vulnerable and disadvantage children in Khartoum State. lt is a logical understanding of the dynamics through which the household, demographic, and community characteristics inﬂuence child well-being. ln addition, one important challenge is to investigate the availability of gender differentials in child well-being and the causal factors The Study comprises two sub-studies, the ﬁrst is qualitative analysis, this sub-study provides an overview about the current status of children in Khartoum, it depends in this part on the reports and studies of the govermnental and non-govemmental organizations in Khartoum concerned with children, it also depends mainly on the reports compiled by the MENA Child Protection Initiative in ‘T Arab Cities including Khartoum. ln-depth interviews were conducted as part of this sub-study with the officials in Khartoum to understand the situations of children; moreover, focus group discussions were conducted with mothers to understand their perception regarding their children’s situations. The other sub-study was quantitative analysis. This stage includes data collection and analysis at three levels, namely, the household level (socio-economic proﬁle of the parents), the individual level (the child himself/herself), and the community level (the environment). The ﬁrst group was made up of socio~economic indicators. Most measures were based on three separate but linked dimensions of socio-economic characteristics: family income, father and mother occupation, and their education. The second group of explanatory factors includes variables relative to demographic characteristics of children or their mothers: birth order of the child, age of mother at birth of child, and whether or not a sibling has died. The third group of explanatory variables includes environmental factors, those relating to housing conditions; This includes the latrine type, the light power, waste collection and other variables relating to the environment surrotmding the child. The Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) is used for the data processing and analysis. The study’s assumptions were conﬁrmed and the vast disparities in children status among their different level were revealed with their causal factors. The study extracted some recommendations and policies to be implemented to enhance the well-being of children in Khartoum State.
Leadership Ingredients of President Nimeri (1969-1985)
(Alneelain University, 2006-12) Abdelrahman B. Elsalamabi
Leadership Ingredients of President Nimeri (1969-1985) Elsalamabi, Abdel Rahman, B.Sc. University of Houston, 1986. L.L.B., El Neelain University 2001. MPA U of K 2003, MSc Aberdeen 2006. Dissertation Directed by Professor Hassan Ali ElSaouri. This research examines the application of various leadership ingredients theories together with their arguments and justifications put forward for the studying of President Nimeri’s administrative, behavioural and political leadership styles. The administrative leadership styles were classiﬁed into two major segments depending on the nature of the challenging situations including coups and/or up-rests surrounding the President at one or more time during his 16-year presidency tenures in office. President Nimeri reacted to minor situation for about 30 attempted coups, 16 strikes and 24 student protesting demonstrations with the administrative style of a ﬁre-ﬁghter. Furthennore, the President had dealt with the two major attempted coups of 1971 and 1976 invasion (Murtazaga) with a different approach where he adapted participative leadership style, which was considered by many scholars as a panacea for productivities and or services increase in private as Well as in public organizations the research ﬁirther assessed the political leadership behaviour in light of the international relations theories where the major political behaviour of a certain superpower categories into three major themes of realist -a solid believer of utilization of power including military, economics, etc. — liberalist who merit the democratic principles; and ideologist who build his virtue on acceptable values and beliefs. Nimeri’s leadership assessed as realist in some of his terms, he then adapted some principles of the liberalist, later he switched to adapt the idealist virtue. The research methodology for major part of this research was rather descriptive and depends mainly on secondary data gathered from many scattered writings on President Nimeri by himself and/or by writers like Dr. Mansour Khalid, and Dr. Faysal Abdallah, Prof. Elsaouri plus others. The second part of this research was also descriptive and referring to the writings of many scholars like Freud, Lasswell, George Alexander, Bamer-Berry and Rosenwein to name a few. One ﬁndings of this study showed that President Nimeri was vulnerable in changing his administrative leadership style; he evolved toward participative leader who strived to increase political participation and decrease his presidential power whenever he was threatened by a major military coup or a military invasion. On the other hand, Nimeri’s administrative leadership style was characterised by “Fire-Fighter” approach whenever he faced minor or trivial challenge to his regime survival. Nimeri’s mechanism applied when changing his administrative leadership style to reﬂect great elements of the participative leadership style- whenever he managed to counter-attack any threatening situations (like military coup or invasion) - via either implementing major changes to the organizational settings for the decision-making process, or sharing more key positions with his subordinates and/or political elites. Another ﬁnding pertaining to his administrative behaviour style showed that Nimeri had at least three inner-conﬂicts, which extemalized in the opposite directions. The ﬁrst one was extemalized in glorifying his family and enriching unjustly his brother. A second conﬂict was extemalized by presenting himself as an intellectual or rather philosophical writer, who thoughtfully wrote at least two books, and even Great Islamic Imam (clergy) who breached everything about Islam. The last conﬂict was extemalized by showing excessive machismo; and also by portraying an image of surrounding himself with important women. In regard to the shifting ideology Nimeri could be assessed as a narcissist and to that end his obvious exaggerations would support further such a narcissism behavior. His high Emotional Intelligence was assessed.
The Impact Of Cash Out-Flow From The Banking Sector on Sudanese Economy(1972-2001)
(Al Neelain University, 2007-02) Ahmed Suliman Ahmed
Sudan —as an example of l.,DCs the banking sector has been suffering from the problem of cash outﬂow over the last three decades, generating the following impacts: Loss of banking sector of its role of financial intermediation, cash scarcity in the banking sector, large government borrowings from unreal source of finance, thus, more inﬂation. The research attempts to specify the main determinants of cash outﬂow from the banking sector in Sudan (during the period 1972-2001). Hence, those revealing the major impacts of the cash outﬂow on the economic activity and rates of inﬂation. The research hypotheses were (l) the Banks economic behavior of attainment reserves and expanding loans is main cause of cash outﬂow. While (2) the government financial activity to cover its budget deficits, and the effective demand for money liquidity by the public are the main factors transmitting the impacts of cash outﬂow to the major macroeconomic variables (Money stock, aggregate demand and supply, cost of resource adjustment, and the rate of inﬂation). (3) Monetization of bank loans via allowing the growth in the effective demand for liquidity by the public directly leads to aggravation of inﬂation given the downward trend of money velocity. (4) Monetization of bank loans via ﬁnancing the current delicits of the government, causes an inﬂationary pressures due to aggregate demand expansion, the real side of the economy will not be affected. Using twelve equations-mathematical model systems with endogenous variables: the demand for effective money liquidity, the nominal and real growth of money stock, the demand for real balances, cost of resources adjustment, the aggregate demand, Gross Domestic Product GDP, the capital stock, the private investment, rate of inﬂation, bank loans, velocity of wide money, and the current budget deficit. Moreover, the general price level index, the real output trend and its actual deviations from that trend, quasi money, real depreciation of the local currency, the labor force size, the private savings and excess reserves held by banks as exogenous variables were used. Based on annual data of Sudan economy for the study period, iterative Weighted Two-Stage Least Squares (IWTLS) were applied through running an econometric computer program of E-views. The Results revealed that monetization in Sudan is mainly determined by the availability of Bank loans which in tum are affected largely by banks’ ability to form excess reserves, by dominated the government borrowing, and less by liquidity preference of the public. Moreover, Money stock has great endogeneity. The bank loans expansion in Sudan economy may induce liquidity preference or may cause inﬂation through inducement of monetary growth by the BOS. lnllation growth may exceed the monetary growth. So, real money growth falls and thus de-accelerates velocity and causes economic recession. On the other hand, the bank loans expansions encourage the government to incur large deﬁcits thus pulling the aggregate demand and aggravate inflation with no effect on the real side of the economy. The research recommended controlling the process of monetization, through controlling banks’ ability to expand loans, good perception to the growth in liquidity preference, and sizing of the government borrowing. To control liquidity preference the government borrowing must be rationed and the policy must be of minimum impact on inflation. To avoid high liquidity preference associated with less velocity, the policy must be designed to facilitate bank loans to the prior productive sectors and the government borrowing must be rationed. And real sources for financing deficits must be developed.
الاصلاح السياسي في العالم العربي بين احتياجات الداخل وضغوط الخارج :دراسة الحاله المصرية
(Neelain University, 2010) شوقار بشار ضيفه خاطر
Abstract The study aims to build an initiative to re-think about a new paradigm of political reform, capable enough to address the failures of the Arab politics, with special reference to the Egyptian case. The area of interest for the study is mainly the reform of socio, economic, and cultural dimensions, to reach a reasonable stage of equality, peaceful society and freedom of speech, in a way to express and realize the political will. The five chapters of the study planned to give some details and analysis including the main concepts, applied reform models, the nature of political Arab regimes, the impact of international changes upon the Egyptian future political setup and reforms . The main problem of the study lies in explaining the philosophy behind the importance of political reform , and why do experts consider it “as a key issue to meet the needs of Arab citizens in general, and the Egyptians particularly. The main assumption of the study , is that western interests stand as obstacles hindering success of Arab political reforms . Data of study was collected jrom dzﬂerent sources , the primary ones refer to oﬂicial documents and publications . While The secondary sources are mainly books , journals and Human Development Reports . Finally , the findings of study indicates the inconsistency of foreign reform model when considering the Egyptian socio cultural peculiarities . By the way , the Egyptian officials are not quite comforted about the growing political role of the other Arab states . One of the most important recommendations of the study is the necessity to apply an action plan in order to reorganize the Egyptian ruling institutions , and pave the way for wider political participation for all eligible individuals.
Factors Affecting Under-Five Mortality in Sudan (1996-2006)
(Al-Neelain University, 2012-04) Hagir Osman Eljack
This thesis focuses on the factors affecting child mortality in Sudan. It speciﬁcally examines how under-ﬁve mortality is related to the bio-demographic, socio-economic and household’s environmental characteristics such as age of mother at childbearing, if the birth is single or twin, preceding birth interval, sex of the child, order of birth, place of residence, mother’s educational level, fertility of women, household size, wealth index, source of drinking water, type of toilet facility, material of roof, material of ﬂoor and place for cooking and fuels for cooking. The study’s source of the data is Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS), which conducted in 2006. Since the dependent variable is the survival status of the child at the time of the survey (Alive/Dead), the data has been analyzed using logistic regression. Child mortality model has been estimated and found that the risk factors associated with under-ﬁve mortality in Sudan were age of mother at childbearing, if the birth is single or twin, preceding birth interval, source of drinking water, type of toilet facility and place for cooking and two interaction variables; twinity of births and fertility of women, and preceding birth interval and place of residence. Also, differentials in risk factors by North/South regions have been investigated and found that the risk factors associated with under-ﬁve mortality in North Sudan were age of mother at childbearing, if the birth is single or twin, preceding birth interval, fertility of women, source of drinking water and place for cooking while the risk factors in South Sudan were preceding birth interval, fertility of women, if the birth is single or twin and type of toilet Also, results revealed that the most risky factors affecting child mortality in Sudan were the bio-demographic and environmental factors.
Impact of Political Stability on Economic Development (Case of South Sudan)
(Al Neelain University, 2013-05) Addis Ababa Othaw Akongdit
The main theme of this study "Impact of political stability on economic development - case of South Sudan" is chosen in response to the general consensus on the importance of conducting a comprehensive study that will sharp the economic policies and promote the business sector as well as the government and other organizations. llo\vever, the key question posed by this study is: whether the theory that political stability fosters economic development is simply the wishful thinking of people who value both stability and growth or it is a delusion ofthose who believe in the fact that most of developing countries may enjoy rapid growth if they are stable. The importance of this study emanates from the fact that South Sudan is confronted with enormous challenges of administrative, ethnic, political and economic development nature. In light of this the current study is trying to address the following issues: “What is the impact of political system in South Sudan on economic Development‘? What is the impact of oil resources on sustainable development? What is the impact of oil shutdown on political and economic stability and what is the possibility of deﬁcit ﬁnancing? Is there any possibility for cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan?” ln this context, the major objective of this study is to analyze the political development of the country to verrify the fact that political stability ensures the achievement of economic and social development. It also seeks to analyse the political history of Sudan in general and South Sudan in particular emphasising the importnance of political stability, among others as a precondition for socio- economic development. Furthermore, other objectives of study include suggestions on ho\v political stability could be ensured in South Sudan and how good governance could promote political and economic stability. In light ofthe above, this study focuses on the issues of the political transition and policies that will improve the economic, political, and social well-being of people south Sudan. lt seeks the ways of setting up policies that will raise the standard of living of people with sustained growth, and moving from a simple, low-income economy to a modern, high-income economy. It also attempts to develop a framework for cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan. The methodology which is adopted to address these issues is collecting, sorting and analyzing primary and secondary information relating political and economic development history of South Sudan, using empirical analysis such as SWOT analysis, information sources, references and books. The major findings ofthis study are as follows: 0 The political stability plays an important role in determining economic growth and economic development in many economies; 0 The degree of political stability is high if there is a high degree of democracy or autocracy; 0 Strong democracies or strong autocracies are best equipped to provide political stability that may lead to economic development. It is then the level of political stability within a given country, regardless of regime type, that results in economic growth; I Long-term sustainable economic growth depends on the ability to raise the rates of accumulation of physical and human capital by securing necessary sources (domestic, foreign or deficit ﬁnance) to use efficiently for ﬁnancing economic development; 0 Most economists view corruption as a major obstacle to development. It is seen as one ofthe causes oflow income and is believed to play a critical role in generating poverty traps (e.g. Blackburn et al., 2006). Thus, corruption, according to this view, ‘sands’ the wheels of development and it makes economic and political transitions diflicult; I good governance is not only critical to development but also that it is the most important factor in determining whether a country has the capacity to use resources effectively to promote economic growth and reduce poverty.
theimpact of taxevasion and tax avoidance inthedeveloping countrles on (casestudy sudan )
(Al-Neelain University, 2020-05) awad babeker eisa;
Impact Of Iron Scrap Recycling On Sustainable Development In Sudan period (2005 -2019) (Case Study Of Giad Steal Industries And Omdurman Industrial District)
(ALNEELAIN UNIVERSITY, 2020-10) SIDDIG MAHIELDIN ABDELGALIL ABDOUN
Abstract Recycling is the process of convening waste materials into new materials and objects. In general, iron and steel scrap recycling involves collection, sorting, baling, packaging, cutting, shearing, shredding and/or sizing, possibly also cryogenic processes, and ﬁnal melting at the steel-works Due to that the study aimed to examine the impact of iron scrap recycling on sustainable development in Sudan in a period between (2005-2019) by taking the case study of Giad Steal Industries and Omdurman Industrial District, most importantly the study depends on the primary data source such as the questioner for iron scrap workers in the Omdurrnan Industrial District and interviewing the workers of iron scrap in addition to the secondary data source such as the annual reports of Giad Steal Industries and the books. The main question of the study is that, does iron scrap recycling have inﬂuence on sustainable development in Sudan?. The study assumed that there is a signiﬁcant relationship between iron scrap recycling and sustainable development in Sudan by taking the SDGs as measurements. The theoretical importance of the study comes to support the researchers in modem science and the empirical importance to a evaluate the sustainable development goals in Sudan and to enable decision takers to make and to take accurate and rational decisions.The study processed the data theoretically through the analyzing the literature review and analytically through the (SPSS,EVIEWS).Finally the important ﬁndings of the study ﬁrstly, Giad Steel Industries sustains the natural resources by recovering 180000 tons annually . Secondly Giad Steel Industries applies the environmental impact assessment through ISO ( I400l)which reduces the negative impact of the manufacturing process on the environment. Thirdly based on ﬁndings of ﬁeld study that, iron scrap sector is a random sector without a legal framework, in addition the govemment policies are the main blocks toward achieving the SDGs Due to that the study is highly recommending to adapt the intemational models like the Japanese and the Gennan models of recycling in order to support this green industry and that will result in economical likewise environmental beneﬁts. The key words : Recycling ,Iron waste , Environment ,Sustainable development , Giad Steel Industries.