تحليل السلاسل الزمنية لعلاقة الإصابة بالملاريا مع بعض العوامل المناخية والديمغرافية في السودان

Abstract

ABSTRACT This dissertation studies the relation between the lllt‘l(l€l‘lt‘t‘ of Malaria and weather indicators (temperature. relative humidity, rainfall and wind-speed) in addition to lllt number of population The study covers three different geographical areas which are the state of Khartoum, Gazira and the Northern tlLll'lllI‘ the time period of (1998-2002). The analyzed data of malaria eases were collected from hospitals (inpatients) monthly record and the influence ol the weather data was registered in meteorological publie corporation. The population data was collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics by using the transfer lunction models The research is constituted of an introduction about malaria sickness, the behavior of vector mosquitoes and the way ol data collection was exposed, as the numbers of incidence oi malaria, weather indicators and numbers of population. A statistical description of the variables of the study and the analysis of the data was conducted and the study ~. ame lt some important points which are as follows:

Khartoum state is an endemic area of malaria lll which there is a progressive tendency in the numbei of malaria cases. The research through statistical analysis showed strong correlations bet\reen tht rainfall, population and the incidence of lllt malaria. Gezira state is depicted as a region in which malaria is an endemic disease. However, the analysis showed a decrease in number of the malaria cast->. in past years. The analysis shows that there is strong correlation between the climatic lactor.~- (rainfall, minimum of temperature and relati\-<- humidity) and the incidence of malaria. The analysis of data of the Northern state \'ll()\\'t'tl that it is not a malaria endemic region. l|'l\\'L‘\'t‘I through the analysis we get strong Co1'1't"latio1i,\ between climatic factors (minimum and maxinium of temperture) and the incidence of malaria.