كلية العلوم الرياضية والاحصاء

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    نموذج قياسي كلي للإقتصاد اليمني
    (2012) خالد احمد محمد المسني
    Abstract This study is based on designing a holistic a macro-econometric model of Yemen in with the aim of predicting the future trends of the economic variables in Yemen and to reach the required rate of growth of the economy and identify the investments that should be available to achieve this growth. The model was constructed based on four standards namely; the economic theory features and structure of tlle Yemeni economy, utilizing or benefiting from the previous evaluative research conducted in Yemen and the extent to which the data were available and were detailed. The model is based on a time series of annual data for the period (1990-2008) which are of a real value. The model is also characterized with its dynamic nature as it consists of lagged variables, and it employs the dummy variables to take into consideration the structural variables and political circumstances in Yemen. It also encompasses 41 equations including 16 behavioral equations. The current study models are placed in four major blocks which constitute the supply and demand sides of Yemeni economy which are the real sector, the govermnent sector, the monetary sector and the external sector. For estimating the model, two phases were performed: The first stage: In this phase, the solution of the behavioral equations was conducted by using ordinary least squares (OLS), and the model estimation was a difficult and challenging as it included numerous attempts in order to reach to the final form which can be consistent with the economic theory, and by which, the standard and statistical tests and the specificity of the structure of the Yemeni economy. The second phase: Model Stimulation: The second phase began with identifying each equation of the model and placing them in the Simultaneous Equation Model. D It also includes solving the entire equations of tlle model fully using the three — stage- least squares (3 SLS). After carrying out the process of identifying the model to determine the appropriate way of estimating the model, it was found that each behavioral equation with over loft diagnosis meets the requirements of tlle necessary condition for the diagnosis, which is the Order Condition. After carefully reviewing the values of the variables (equations), and subjecting them to well- known statistical tests to ensure the reliability of the estimates and their conformity with the expectations of the theoretical side, the final model was determined. After the completion of the estimation, the suitability and validity of the model were tested by carrying out dynamic simulation for the period of time (1990-2008) upon which the model was constructed and tested by using a group of criteria to measure the extent of the deviation between the estimated numbers and the actual figures of the intemal variables. The model simulation and tests showed that the majority of the variables of the model achieved satisfactory results, and the model managed to largely simulate the historical and actual or real pattern of the major variables, and based on such findings, the model can be used to achieve a number of goals including: -Predicting the future trends for the macro-economic variables of the Yemeni economy for the period (2009-2020). -Estimating the required rate of growth of the economy (44%) of the value of the GDP. -To achieve the required growth, investments need to be estimated (3,548,613) million YR. -Recognizing the impact of implementing certain policies and alternatives through simulation.
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    تحليل السلاسل الزمنية لعلاقة الإصابة بالملاريا مع بعض العوامل المناخية والديمغرافية في السودان
    (2003) عواطف محمد النور
    ABSTRACT This dissertation studies the relation between the lllt‘l(l€l‘lt‘t‘ of Malaria and weather indicators (temperature. relative humidity, rainfall and wind-speed) in addition to lllt number of population The study covers three different geographical areas which are the state of Khartoum, Gazira and the Northern tlLll'lllI‘ the time period of (1998-2002). The analyzed data of malaria eases were collected from hospitals (inpatients) monthly record and the influence ol the weather data was registered in meteorological publie corporation. The population data was collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics by using the transfer lunction models The research is constituted of an introduction about malaria sickness, the behavior of vector mosquitoes and the way ol data collection was exposed, as the numbers of incidence oi malaria, weather indicators and numbers of population. A statistical description of the variables of the study and the analysis of the data was conducted and the study ~. ame lt some important points which are as follows: Khartoum state is an endemic area of malaria lll which there is a progressive tendency in the numbei of malaria cases. The research through statistical analysis showed strong correlations bet\reen tht rainfall, population and the incidence of lllt malaria. Gezira state is depicted as a region in which malaria is an endemic disease. However, the analysis showed a decrease in number of the malaria cast->. in past years. The analysis shows that there is strong correlation between the climatic lactor.~- (rainfall, minimum of temperature and relati\-<- humidity) and the incidence of malaria. The analysis of data of the Northern state \'ll()\\'t'tl that it is not a malaria endemic region. l|'l\\'L‘\'t‘I through the analysis we get strong Co1'1't"latio1i,\ between climatic factors (minimum and maxinium of temperture) and the incidence of malaria.
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