Technical Risks Associated With Some Sudanese Telecommunications Networks And Proposed Solutions

Abstract

Abstract As today’s business world is dynamic and constantly changing, a plenty of surprises and risks taken into consideration appear suddenly, leading to block the implementation of engineering projects or may cause a total collapse. The dissertation focuses on three main issues: 1) technical risks associated with telecom transmission media. 2) multiple criteria and decision making, 3) cost and schedule risks associated with telecom network. This research highlights the use of the advantages ‘of performing qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques as a methodology to provide better information to support critical decisions. These methodologies help to evaluate and estimate the size of contingency reserves for the time and cost that would be appropriate for stakeholders. The technique used in the risk assessment is focused on five main issues: 1) Root cause analysis method which is a serious method of problem solving. 2) Expected monetary value which is a simple calculation of a value such as expected cost target. 3) Decision tree analysis that is a pOWCl’fill utility for choosing an option from alternatives. 4) Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to make decision in complex problems. 5) Simulation models such as sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in order to meet sufficient results in cost estimation and schedules. In the first scenario, a complete risk register is constructed involving risk identification, risk triggering, risk severity, risk analysis, risk response, and risk monitoring. The second scenario represents decision making in telecom companies to select the best suitable and appropriate transmission lines types. _Six criteria were identified such as Installation cost, capacity, Security, immunity to noise, issue of latency, and distance for

getting the best type of transmission lines among the three alternatives options such as fiber optic, VSAT, and microwaves under consideration. The third scenario shows a simulation- based approach of assessing the risk and uncertainty involved in estimating the expected eamings of a mobile communication company according to traffic intensity principle. The procedure involves using of sensitivity analysis modeling, and spreadsheet sofiware, such as Excel, is a common tool for perfonning this model. This method shows the influence of five main factors influencing the effectiveness of trunking theory. This leads stakeholders to avoid the risks associated to cost by taking attention to the five parameters related to mobile traffic intensity such as number of users, number of calls, call duration, initial cost of call duration, and price of call duration. The research also provides some of the obstacles faced by telecommunications companies such as the problem of increase network capacity, in order to support many new users. To complete this task, Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Monte Carlo is a computerized mathematical technique that allows people to account for risk in quantitative analysis and decision making. The pr0ject’s problem is divided into four jobs; Hardware Installation, Software Configurations, Electrical wiring, and Civil Works. Based on prior experience or other expert knowledge, risk manger can determine the best case, most-likely, and worst-case estimates for each of these activities.