Technical Risks Associated With Some Sudanese Telecommunications Networks And Proposed Solutions

Abstract

As today‘s business world is dynamic and constantly changing, a p

lenty of surprises

and risks

taken into consideration appear suddenly, leading to block the implementation of

engineering pro

jects or may cause a total collapse.

The dissertation focuses on three main issues: 1) technical risks associated with telecom

transmission media. 2) multiple criteria and decision making, 3) cost and schedule risks

associated with telecom network.

This re

search highlights the use of the advantages of performing qualitative and

quantitative

analysis techniques as a methodology to provide better information to support

critical decisions. These methodologies help to evaluate and estimate the size of contingen

cy

reserves for the time and cost that would be appropriate for sta

keholders. The technique used

in the

risk assessment is focused on five main issues: 1) Root cause analysis method which

is a serious method of problem solving

.

2) Expected monetary value w

hich is a simple

calculation of a value such as expected cost target. 3) Decision tree analysis that is a

powerful utility for choosing an option from alternatives. 4) Analytical Hierarchy Process

(AHP) in order to make decision in complex problems. 5) Sim

ulation models such as

sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in order to meet sufficient results in cost

estimation and schedules.

In the first scenario, a complete risk register is constructed involving risk

identification, risk triggering, risk

severity, risk analysis, risk response, and risk monitoring.

The second scenario represent

s

decision making in telecom companies to select the best

suitable and appropriate transmission

lines types

. Six criteria were identified such as

Installation cost,

capacity, Security, immunity to noise, issue of latency, and distance for

getting the best type of transmission lines among the three alternatives options such as fiber

optic, VSAT, and microwaves under consideration. The third scenario shows a simulation

-

based approach of assessing the risk and uncertainty involved in estimating the expected

earnings of a mobile communication company according to traffic intensity principle. The

procedure involves using of sensitivity analysis modeling, and spreadsheet sof

tware, such as

Excel, is a common tool for performing this model. This met

hod shows the influence of five

main factors influencing the effectiveness of trunking theory. This leads stakeholders to

avoid the risks associated to cost by taking attention to th

e five parameters related to mobile

traffic intensity such as number of users, number of calls, call duration, initial cost of call

duration, and price of call duration.

The research also provides some of the obstacles faced by teleco

mmunications

companies

such as the

problem of increase network capacity, in order to support many new

users. To complete this task, Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Monte Carlo is a

computerized mathematical technique that allows people to account for risk in quantitative

ana

lysis and decision making

.

The project‘s problem is divided into four jobs; Hardware

Installation, Software Configurations, Electrical wiring, and Civil Works. Based on prior

experience or other expert knowledge, risk manger can determine the best case, mo

st

-

likely,

and worst

-

case estimates for each of these activities