نموذج محاسبى مقترح لإستخدام العملومات المحاسبية في تقويم الأداء والتنبؤ بالأزمات المالية : دراسة تحليلية تطبيقية 2005- 2007م

Abstract

Abstract The research problem focuses on the fact that Accounting thought does not provide ideal model for optimizing the usefulness of accounting information to be used for evaluating the performance and predicting the financial crises that face the economic projects which may limit the truthfulness and usefulness of the accounting information, in addition to lacking in complete scientific framework for measuring and predicting the financial crises. The significance of this research stems from the fact that it’s a new proposal which endeavours to provide complete accounting approach which allows for evaluating the performance and predicting the financial crises by depending on scientific methods which work to realize the correlation between the accounting thought by using it as a tool that provides useful information for serving the public economically and socially, that make the accounting thought cope with changes that happen in the contemporary business. For the purpose of conducting this research, the researcher has depended on descriptive, deductive and inductive methods. To realize the objectives of this study the following hypotheses have been tested: ' l- Accounting thought allows for reaching to a complete approach that helps in evaluating the performance and predicting the financial crises. 2- The descriptive models don’t represent only tool for evaluating the performance and predicting the financial crises. 3- The proposed accounting approach for evaluating the performance and predicting the financial crises by using the quantitative models optimizes the efficiency and effectiveness of the accounting data. 4- Applying the proposed quantitative models on banking sector, represents a useful tool that works to minimize the degree of risk that the sector might face through its early discovery. The researcher has reached to findings which assure validity of the scientific hypotheses as follows: 1- The accounting thought allows for reaching to a complete approach that helps in evaluating the performance and predicting the financial crises. 2- The different quantitative indicators group which were used have increased the effectiveness of the financial statement data and have

been used for evaluating the performance, this has validated the second hypothesis that the descriptive models don’t represent the only tool for evaluating the perfomiance and predicting the financial crises. A group of findings have been reached which are related to value of capital and the relation between retums and assets that has maximized the value of the accounting information and assured the validity of the third hypothesis. The findings have alerted to the availability of expected risks related to liquidity and insufficiency of value of some provisions that supported the validity of the fourth hypothesis which stipulates that “Applying the proposed quantitative models on banking sector, represents 21 useful tool that works to minimize the degree of risk that the sector might face through its early discovery” The study has been concluded with recommendations the importance of which are:-

Necessity of adopting the proposed quantitative model by banking sector for using it as a means of effectively evaluating the performance and predicting the financial failure and increasing the effectiveness of the financial statements data, and alerting the management of the performance short-coming and the possibility of failure and working to avoid it and preserving its balance. Necessity of developing an international accounting standard consisting of general-framework for the concept of the financial failure and measuring it and predicting it. Attaching to the financial statement additional report for evaluating the performance and the possibility of the financial failure expected to provide the financial statements user with a comprehensive background about the company financial position. The financial statements explanations have to contain report about position of debts under collection classified according to time range for the dates of its collections. Necessity of developing specialized model for companies of special nature as investment and insurance companies.