أثر السياسة المالية علي متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي في السودان 2007 -2010م

Abstract

Abstract The current thesis aimed to build an econometric model in order to analyze impacts of the linancial policy on the performance of macroeconomic variables of Sudan. The analysis results show that the fo'rmer greatly affect the latter performance. Assessment of effect of selected macroeconomic variables, GDP, lnllation Rates, effective real exchange rates and government expenditure. Data were collected and utilized in the analysis were long of time series sets (1989-2010). 'l‘he model equations were analyzed by using statistical package and produced the following results: 1. There were no heteroseedacity problems though expected and . tested for by ARCH test. The probability values for GDP, Inflation, exchange rate consumption expenditure were (0.72, . 0.65, 0.60, 0,6l) consecutively and all were on 5% signilieance l level. 2. Durbin‘-Watson test for autocorrelation proved that there were no | problems. l).W values werel.9. , On the economic side the produced results showed the following: 1. All constant signs were positive and adhering with the economic ' theory in all eases ofGDP ,Inflation ,exchange rate consumption when all presumed explanatory variables equal zero, e.g. , representing the minimum value of the variable and do not _ correlate with financial policy variables in the function._ I 2. Government expenditure sign was positive in all equations and ' showed positive correlation with the former and GDP ,lnllation ,exchange rate consumption. I 3. Taxation variable sign was negative which indicates negative I correlation between total taxation and ,lnllation and consumption. ' 4. Taxation coefficient was positive with GDP.