نموذج احصائي لمحددات الهجرة الداخلية في السودان 1973 - 2005م

Abstract

Abstract This research tackles the determinants of the internal migration in Sudan as they are considerably regarded as an eventual consequence of developmental, economic, social, demographic, environmental, historical and political disparity among the country's regions. This variation, therefore, constituted a factor of attraction and a motive for the population resulting in the extensive demographic move from regions to the capital city, Khartoum. That fact was reached through the testing of the following hypotheses. l. Variation of social and economic conditions among different regions increases the volume of migration to the Capital City of the country. 2. The economic motive constitutes the most influencing factor on the decision of individuals and family regarding migration to the Capital City. 3. Migration from different regions to the most developed regions has a feature of permanent migrations pattem which increases the population growth rates in the receiving region. The researcher has adopted, descriptive, analytical and statistical approach to verify the validity of hypotheses. Data, were, thus, collected about 19 variables for measuring the ‘degree of economic and social variation among the Sudan's regions. A field survey covering a sample of 462 household was conducted. The questionnaire for that survey is composed of 47 questions answered by the head of the household. The statistical analysis confirmed the existence of significant differences and variations among regions. The factor analysis approach affirmed, as well, the effect of this disparity on the migrants to the capital city.

The research consists of nine chapters. The introduction discusses the basic concepts literature review, sources and evaluation of data, developmental variation among the regions, internal migration volume and their trends and the impact of that on Khartourn‘s region, using factor analysis for analysing migration data, descriptive results of the study and the analytical findings of the survey. The research reached various findings, most important of which are the following:- 1. The response of population of different regions to the disparity of the economical and social factors was variant. 2. Unavailability of basic services such as education, medical treatment, water and electricity was the most influencing factor in the migration decision, followed by the individuals‘ economic condition . The research reached a number of recommendations in a form of a package of policies. The most important features of which were : 1. Importance of establishing various urban centers distributed geographically throughout the County. 2. Necessity of expanding the establishment of model villages for providing economically viable basic services. 3. Importance of assisting producers to use production teclmologies which increase production and productivity and decrease costs. 4. Encouraging trades and small industries at the different regions and mainst.