تصميم نظام تنبؤ باستخدام تقنيات تنقيب البيانات حالة تطبيقية: التنبؤ بالسلع الصادرة عبر النظام الإلكتروني للجمارك السودانية

Abstract

Abstract The use of Data Mining techniques provides users in all fields the ability to extract and focus on essential information in databases. Data Mining techniques are based on the construction of forecasts and the detection of behavior and trends which allows to make good decisions and in due time, The study examined the design of a prediction system using data mining techniques applying statistical methods to predict customs exports through the Sudanese Customs Electronic System, The problem of the study is that the customs authority does not use the decision support systems, which leads to the lack of optimal independence of the data in decision making, which drains many efforts and misses many opportunities. The Customs Authority has a large database of exports and imports, The study aimed at providing an applied study in the field of data prospecting to support the decision makers of the Sudanese customs authority by constructing a prediction system using data mining techniques to forecast goods exported through the Sudanese Customs Electronic System using four statistical methods to reach the best method among them, The study was based on the scientific approach in analysis and design. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) was used in System documentation, Java language in application creation , Oracle (11g) in the databases and SPSS Program in Statistical Analysis , The results of the study showed that the statistical methods are very successful in supporting decision-making, and that the method of least squares is the highest value in the value followed by the method of simple linear regression and then the method of moving averages and finally the method of related ratios. The study recommended the need to rely on the prediction in the preparation of plans and programs that help in support of national income in addition to the need to investigate the reasons for the low interest in the use of data mining techniques in Sudan Customs Authority that will increase the efficiency of decision-