تحليل قياسي لكفاءة إستخدام التمويل الزراعي وأثره على الإقتصاد القومي السوداني

Abstract

Abstract The thesis is primarily concerned with the impacts of financing on the agricultural sector of the Sudan in regard with the fact that this sector is a major and, crucial for economic activities in the country. The sector provides jobs for more than 70% of the population and raw materials for domestic industries. However, the thesis argues that the financing problems should not be insulated from the contemporary domestic and international political and socioeconomic conditions. Two major aspects are cardinal in this analysis: (1) the macroeconomic conditions and restructuring programs‘ as combined with the major targets of ~the agricultural policies, development efforts and investments in sub sectors and (2) analysis, interpretations and assessment of the present financing's paradigms in order to coalesce cultivated areas, value of the productivity, product, and the other production factors on the demand for finance. Moreover, it is also important to correlate input-output relationships to approximate possibilities for horizontal and vertical expansions. All this comes under the present administrative, technical impediments, organizational structural and the weaknesses of the financial systems in the Sudan. The Sheil system still prevails and extracts most surpluses of the famler's income who may even be unable to cover basic cost. In addition, taxation sequesters the leftovers and contributes more to sufferings. That is reflected on all the agricultural sub sectors, e.g., irrigated, rainfed and traditional. In order to verify such hypotheses the analysis too field samples from all those sub sectors and first conducted descriptive analysis that was followed a quantitative_ one. The data were obtained through extensive questionnaires for selected areas presumed to represent the Sudanese agricultural sector. An econometric approach based on linear model was built to contain all crucial variables and was tested by using ordinary least squares where agricultural finance represented the dependant variable. The estimated regression equation revealed that the most important is cultivated area whereas increasing it increases demand for finance by 2357 Dinars. The other tested factors, agricultural product, revenue where 1.201 and 0.858, respectively. From the questionnaires data it was concluded that are three major sources for financing; (1) self-finance (84%), (2) the formal sectors and Banks (12%) and (3) the informal sector (4%). The thesis however, expressively proves that despite of the other problems of agriculture such as irregular irrigation in irrigated farming, the continuing increases cost of agricultural inputsand decreased productivity, the scarcity of formal financing is the main determinant factor. Its impacts are reflected in all the agricultural parameters, e.g., cultivated area, operations and productivity. The recommendations detailed in the thesis are centered on an amelioration ofthe formal agricultural financing and a rehabilitation of the of loans systems. Moreover. a reformation of the present and overwhelming short-termed loans approach to expansions of the medi__t_nn and long term loans which should be guaranteed by stronger collaterals such as land that has a strong background of deeds granted by the state ln addition, a reconsideration of the present interest rates is necessitated and should be built on a wide-based research with primary perceptions ol‘ reviving the agricultural sector.