العوامل المؤثرة علي الصادرات في النمو الاقتصاد الوطني : دراسة تجريبية لحالة السودان في الفترة1978م - 1998م

Abstract

ABSTRACT This research is specialized in the study of the export sector in Sudan; in period 1978 to 1998. This is done through the review and analysis of the policies of the promotion of exports, which included the devaluation of exchange rate, retention and privatization. The research also discusses the cost structure and its impact on the competitiveness the export commodities. The export sector performance was characterized by fluctuations, during the period of the study. This period was accompanied by a rapid deterioration in the exchange rate. This had led to the rise of the prices of production and inputs; and consequently, the rise in the cost of exports. For reaching the required results, the empirical — analysis approach was used. The tools of the research included the time series, regression analysis and correlation, in accordance with data obtained for the period 1978 — 1998. The secondary sources of data are the references, books and various reports. But : the primary data included the preparation of a model of exports — made out of the constituent elements of same. The findings of the study may be summarized as follows: 1. The exchange rate has no clear effect on the quantity and value of exports. This is due it the nature of the Sudanese exports — which are mainly agricultural. Also because the exchange rate affects the cost of production directly and explicitly. 2. The fees and taxes have a clear impact on exports and the cost production. The also affect the cost of transport, production al1d export. 3. Also, borrowing from the banking system, affect the money supply. So, this Leads to the deterioration of the exchange rate, the increase of local prices and the increase of the cost of export. 4. Exports affect the value of the gross domestic product (GDP) in a major way. They also affect the national income variables, in a clear way; which is contrary to imports. This explains the permanent deficit in the trade balance. An accordance with the above findings, the study recommends the following: 1. Owing to the great importance of the export sector and its role in achieving economic development, it is important to focus policy of the promotion of exports. 2. In the field of the exchange rate policy, it is important to set a realistic exchange rate, which copes with the cost of production. 3. In the realm of the privatization policy, some important commodities, which are involved in the agricultural and industrial sectors, must be added, with determining the lowest prices for the privatized export commodities. 4. In the field of the policy of retention, the retention ratio should be raised especially for the marginal commodities. 5. In the field of the reduction of the costs of production and the promotion of exports, the following is recommended: - The adoption of coordinated financial and monetary policies. - Emphasis on the increase of production and the achievement of higher productivity rates. - Setting perfect controls for dealing with foreign currencies.