Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Logic

Abstract

ABSTRACT Load forecasting is an important component for power system energy management system. Precise load forecasting helps the electric utility to make unit commitment decisions, reduces spinning reserve capacity and schedule device maintenance plan properly. It also reduces the generation cost and increases reliability of power systems. In this work, a fuzzy logic approach for short term load forecasting is attempted. Time, temperature and similar previous day load are used as the independent variables for short term load forecasting. Based on the time, temperature and similar previous day load, fuzzy rule base are prepared using Mamdani implication, which are eventually used for the short term load forecasting. MATLAB SIMULINK software is used here in this work for system designing and simulation. For the short term load forecasting, load data from the specific area load control center is considered. The results obtained from fuzzy logic forecasting load are compared with the actual load and it is found that there is an error between -0.07% and +0.07%