التحليل المالي واثره في اختيار مشروعات الاستثمار في ظل ظروف عدم التاكد : تطبيق علي سوق الخرطوم للاوراق الماليه

Abstract

This study pointed out to the importance of adoption of procedures and scientific means instead of the haphazard procedures by the investor in taking his investment decisions in investments in bonds in particular when the investor always faces problems connected with the selection of the investment projects listed in the- bonds market which are always surrounded by circumstances which are ofien described as uncertain where the investor concentrates in his search for levels of returns and the present and expected risks for these investment projects. The importance of this study became clear because it contributes to the demonstration of the feasibility and the importance of relying on the scientific methodology to reach sound investment decisions; this methodology which is manifested in the financial analysis and the study called for the importance of using scientific ad practical directives manifested in some mathematical and statistical models related to financial analysis which help in the analysis, and then showing the returns and the expected risks in each targeted investment project; The study aimed at shedding the light on the most ‘important procedures for financial analysis represented by the basic analysis which concentrates on the analysis of financial data connected with the nature of operational activity of the targeted investment projecfiand theklevel of returns actually achieved and expected in the future; and the technical analysis method which in turn concentrates on the analysis and explanation of previous present and expected fluctuations in the future of the targeted bond market price under circulation in the market. Since the study was directed to the analysis of the bonds market (Khartoum Bonds Market) activity the study‘ concentrated on the technical analysis procedure by means of using a mathematical quantity model which is connected to this type of analysis called "Capital Assets Pricing Model" (CAPM) which was built on hypothesis which this study tried ‘to test relying in doing this on the analytical and statistical methodologies together. The most important tools that were relied upon in collection of data and preliminary information are some mathematical equations through which important values that help in analysis and explanation of study samples term each on its own. These values are represented in (actual revenue of each bond — the revenue of the market purse — revenue free of risk-systematic estimated risks on beta factor — the desired revenue for the bond and estimated on CAl\/[P model). ~ In order to organize this study it was divided into two main sections and 3 chapters: The first section is theoretical and is composed of 2 chapters and a number of topics. It took up the concept and nature of investment in bonds from a usurious perspective and an Islamic perspective. The second section is applied or practical which took up the origin and development of Khartoum Bonds Market and lit also took up analysis and testing of the research hypothesis where by the presence of a direct correlation relationship was confirmed between the actual revenues and the bonds sample of companies enlisted in Khartoum financial market from one model, and also the confirmation that (CAMP) model that is estimated on the basis of beta explains the fluctuations in actual revenues of compmantes‘ bonds selected as a sample and between desired revenues and estimated revenues on the basis of (CAMP) model for the same bonds and for the same period.