Browsing by Author "Ghadda Mohamed Awad Yousif"

Filter results by typing the first few letters
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Determinants of exports in Sudan: Empirical Assessment Based on an Application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model (1980-2014)
    (جامعة النيلين - مجلة الدراسات العليا, 2018-10-15) Badr eldeen Abdalmalik Alhaj Abouzeed; Ghadda Mohamed Awad Yousif; Safiat Ali Saber Ali
    The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between (government spending, exchange rate, growth domestic product, domestic investment and inflation) and exports in Sudan. Three control variables are included in the analysis, namely, (foreign direct investment, money supply and cost of finance). The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration, associated with error correction method (ECM). Annual time series data covering the period (1980-2014), which are collected from the Central Bank of Sudan and Central Bureau of Statistics. The results show that real GDP, and inflation have negative effect on exports in the long run, while domestic investment, exchange rate and government spending have a positive effect on exports in the long run. The coefficient of inflation, government spending and exchange rate exerts right sign and statistically is significant, -0.49, 0.90 and 0.18 respectively this mean that, inflation, government spending and exchange rate considerate are important determents of exports in the long run. With regard of control variables, the result indicates that foreign direct investment, cost of finance and money supply have positive effect on exports. In the short run real GDP, and inflation have negative effect on exports, while government spending, exchange rate and domestic investment have positive effect and statistically is insignificant on exports. With regard of control variables, the result indicates that foreign direct investment, cost of finance and money supply have positive effect on exports. Moreover, the econometric analysis suggests that the speed of adjustment in the estimated models is relatively high and had the expected significant and negative sign. The government should improve public infrastructure to reduce the cost of production, and so can increase profits and encourage investor to invest.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    An Empirical Analysis of the relationship between Economic Growth and Some Macroeconomic Factors in Sudan: (1980-2014)
    (جامعة النيلين - مجلة الدراسات العليا, 2018-04-15) Badr eldeen Abdalmalik Alhaj Abouzeed; Ghadda Mohamed Awad Yousif; Elsheikh Mohammed Elkhidir Mohammed; Safiat Ali Saber Ali
    The objective of the study is to examine the empirical evidence of the existence of long – run and short-run relationship between economic growth, exports, investment and inflation in Sudan. Five control variables are included in the analysis, namely, exchange rate, government spending, foreign direct investment, money supply, and cost of finance. Three Stage Least Squares method (3SLS) has been employed to annual time series data covering the period (1980-2014), which are collected from the Central Bank of Sudan and Central Bureau of Statistics, using E-Views package Varian 10. The empirical results of simultaneous equations model indicate that change in real GDP is positively related to investment and exports. The relationship between investment and real output in term of elasticity remains very weak i.e. a one percent increase in investment leads to a respective real GDP increase of 0.11% only. Inflation has negative and statistically significant effect on real GDP. A 1% rise in inflation leads to a reduction in GDP over time by 0.09 percent. Also the results show that real output does not affect only by exports, investment and inflation, but depend upon other determinants (exchange rate, foreign direct investment, government spending, money supply and cost of finance). The study recommended that to increase the real GDP, policy makers will look after the investment, it is an important indicator for economic development. The government should adopt policies to widening and diversifying exports. In addition to that, the government should create a stable political and economic climate conducive to investment, and realize full employment of resources.